After near-record 92% ice cover over the Great Lakes last winter, three lakes – Superior, Michigan and Huron – already had ice forming as of Nov. 18.
That’s the earliest that ice cover has started on all three lakes in at least 40 years, says the Detroit Free Press. “That could make for another struggle for freighters hauling fuel, minerals and products on the waters.”
Lake Superior had ice near Thunder Bay on Nov. 15, the earliest on record going back at least 42 years, said service senior ice forecaster Jason Ross. It’s also 10 days earlier than first-ice reports from last winter, which approached a record ice cover over all the Great Lakes of 92%.
Ice was spotted on both the northern and southern shores of Lake Superior last week; on Green Bay and the northern tip of Lake Michigan; along the St. Mary’s River and Georgian Bay in northern Lake Huron, and even on southern Saginaw Bay along Michigan’s Thumb.
“It’s very early,” said Jia Wang, an ice climatologist with the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor.
That elicits a grimace from Great Lakes freight haulers.
“It suggests this will be another tough winter for us,” said Glen Nekvasil, vice president of the Lake Carriers Association, a trade organization for freighters.
Barges waiting in lines to follow icebreakers last winter caused many shipments to be delayed by days or even weeks.
Two climatic conditions out on oceans, the El Niño Index and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, spell bad news again this winter for Michigan, Wang said. They involve ocean surface temperature anomalies that impact weather.
“It’s going to be a cold winter, similar to last winter,” he said Wang. “I don’t know if Great Lakes ice will be at last year’s level, 92% ice cover, but it will be more than average.”
Thanks to Ron994 for this link